River-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation

• Main Authors: WANG LI, XU JIPING, YU JIABIN, WANG XIAOYI, ZHAO ZHIYAO, ZHOU YUQIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 02.10.2018
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a river-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and belongs to the field of environmental engineering technologies. The method comprises the steps of first establishing a water quality dynamic model of 8 water quality indexes based on a water quality index evolution mechanism; then performing river-lake waterquality prediction by using Monte Carlo simulation, predicting the evolution process of the water quality indexes by using Monte Carlo simulation based on the prior distribution of the known water quality indexes and model parameters of the water quality dynamic model, and obtaining the probability distribution of water quality index values in the future so as to realize water quality prediction;and finally constructing a comprehensive nutrition state index, and calculating the probability distribution of the comprehensive nutrition state index and the probability of being at different nutrition levels by combining th