Transformer internal latent fault rate prediction method based on birth and death process

• Main Authors: LIU BAOZHU, HAN SAISAI, KONG DEQUAN, BAI CUNXI, LI SIQIN, LIANG JIAN, YANG YIXIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 19.01.2018
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; MEASURING; MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR; TESTING

The invention discloses a transformer internal latent fault rate prediction method based on a birth and death process. The method comprises the following steps: 1, acquiring the historical data of thetransformer state staying time and the winding hot spot temperature data, and detecting the content of the gas in the transformer oil is detected; 2, calculating the transfer rate lambda of the historically operating four states of the transformer; 3, according to the winding hot spot temperature data, calculating a transformer aging acceleration factor; 4, calculating a historical average acceleration factor; 5, solving a transformer time-varying state transfer rate; 6, according to the state transfer mechanism of the transformer and the operation history data, compiling a birth and death process equation set of the state transfer of the transformer, and calculating the transformer time-varying fault rate when the transformer is in the m running time; 7. correcting the time-varying faultrate according to the mai