Photovoltaic power prediction method in combination with photovoltaic power physical model and data driving

• Main Authors: WANG YANG, XIA QING, KANG CHONGQING, LAI XIAOWEN, ZHONG HAIWANG, WANG JIANXIAO
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 10.11.2017
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; HANDLING RECORD CARRIERS; PHYSICS; PRESENTATION OF DATA; RECOGNITION OF DATA; RECORD CARRIERS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power prediction method in combination with a photovoltaic power physical model and data driving, belonging to the field of new energy prediction technology of power systems. The method comprises the following steps: determining key weather features that affect the photovoltaic power by using a photovoltaic power physical model, and establishing key weather feature matrices of a historical period and a prediction period; and then separately establishing weather data matrices of the historical period and the prediction period to obtain input matrices of the historical period and the prediction period; performing feature extraction for the input matrices to obtain principal component feature matrices of the historical period and the prediction period; and selecting K historical periods with the nearest Manhattan distance from the principal component features of any prediction period, fitting to obtain a mapping relationship between the principal component features of the K