China future population prediction method

• Main Author: CHENG ZAISHU
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 27.10.2017
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The embodiment of the invention discloses a China future population prediction method. According to the method, a human mortality model, a basic data correction module, a total fertility rate module, an international population net migration module, a calculation module, an error analysis module, a universal two-child policy and a comparison module are included. The method has the advantages that execution speed is high, the future population and age structure of China are predicted through a Leslie matrix, and compared with statistics on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the maximum error of the calculated death toll from 2001 to 2015 is 3.31%, the average error is 1.81%, and the maximum error and the average error are respectively lower than 7.23% and 3.8% published on the website of the US Census Bureau. 本发明实施例公开了种中国未来人口数预测法，所述方法包括：人口死亡率模型，基础数据校正模块，总和生育率模块，国际人口净迁移模块，计算模块，误差分析模块，全面二孩政策与否对比模块。本发明方法具有执行速度快，通过Leslie矩阵预测中国未来的人口数及年龄结构，计算出的死亡人数与中国国家统计局网站对比，2001-2015年最大误差3.31%,平均误差1.81%，低于