Local shape similarity ultra short-period load prediction method and apparatus

• Main Authors: DU JIANG, DI PENGYU, YANG MINJING, LI YAN, LIU JIANING, WU BINGXIANG, SHEN MAOYA, DONG CHAO, LAN XINBIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 26.04.2017
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The embodiments of the invention disclose a local shape similarity ultra short-period load prediction method and apparatus. According to the embodiments of the invention, after objects of ultra short-period load prediction are divided according to vacations and normal days, a meteorological similar coefficient is calculated by use of a gray correlation analysis method, through combination with a time similarity coefficient between sample days and prediction days, proper similar days are selected, a difference between total similarity and local similarity of a load curve is taken into consideration, based on the total similarity, internal rules of loads at prediction time points and the loads at a plurality of precious time points are analyzed, local shape similarity is determined by use of a Euclidean distance method, and sample loads are finely selected. 本发明实施例公开了种局部形相似超短期负荷预测方法及装置，本发明实施例对超短期负荷预测的对象按节假日和正常日进行划分后，采用灰色关联分析法计算气象相似系数，结合样本日和预测日之间的时间相似系数选取合适的相似日，且考虑负荷曲线的总体相似与局部相似之间的差异，在总体相似的基础上分析预测时刻负荷和前面若干时刻负荷的内在