Medium-and-long-term forecasting method and medium-and-long-term forecasting system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation

• Main Authors: XI CHAO, LI ZHIBIN, DENG KEQUN, CAI CHENGLIN, WANG LIJIE, WEI ZHAOCHUAN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 08.01.2014
• Subjects: GYROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS; MEASURING; MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS; NAVIGATION; PHOTOGRAMMETRY OR VIDEOGRAMMETRY; PHYSICS; SURVEYING; TESTING

The invention discloses a medium-and-long-term forecasting method and a medium-and-long-term forecasting system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation. The method comprises the following steps of constructing an ARMA model and a sliding window model by selecting broadcast ephemeris parameters within a certain time length according to broadcast ephemeris data; forecasting the broadcast ephemeris parameters within a certain time length in the future through the ARMA model and the sliding window model; calculating satellite orbit coordinates at the moment according to forecast values of the broadcast ephemeris parameters within the certain time length in the future. The system for implementing the method can simply and effectively forecast the satellite orbit coordinates; an error of a 25-day satellite orbit forecast of the GPS (global positioning system) satellite PRN02 for example is controlled within 150 meters, so that an ideal forecast effect can be obtained.