种风光储联合发电系统风险的评估方法

• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese
• Published: 28.12.2016
• Subjects: CALCULATING; CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION ORPROCESSING OF GOODS; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ONOTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORKOPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FORIMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION,DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS; TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINSTCLIMATE CHANGE

本发明涉及种风光储联合发电系统风险的评估方法，包括以下步骤：获取风光储联合发电系统可靠性统计数据，并根据可靠性统计数据计算主要设备的可靠性参数；根据可靠性参数建立可靠性模型、发电功率模型以及负荷模型；获取风光储联合发电系统的功率时间序列、运行状态时间序列以及负荷时间序列；计算风光储联合发电系统的发电量损失风险LOEE以及电力不足风险LOLE以及系统辅助服务缺失风险SSL；以及根据发电量损失风险LOEE以及电力不足风险LOLE及系统辅助服务缺失风险SSL获取风光储联合发电系统的综合风险CRV。所述方法综合考虑了发电损失、系统辅助功能的风险因素。 The invention relates to an evaluation method for a risk of a wind power, photovoltaic power generation and energy storage combined power generation system. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: acquiring reliability statistic data of the wind power, photovoltaic power generation and energy storage combined power generation system and calculating reliability parameters of main equipment according to the reliability statistic data; establishing a reliability model, a generated-power model and a load model according to the reliability parameters; acquiring a power time sequence, an operation state time sequence and a load time sequence of the wind power, photovoltaic power generation and energy storage combined power generatio