Super-short-term power prediction method based on clearance model for photovoltaic power station

• Main Authors: FENG SHUANGLEI, WANG WEISHENG, LU JING, WANG ZHENG, ZHANG FEI, LIU CHUN, CHE JIANFENG, WANG XIAORONG, WANG BO
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 17.07.2013
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ONOTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORKOPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FORIMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION,DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS

The invention provides a super-short-term power prediction method based on a clearance model for a photovoltaic power station. The method comprises the following steps: data preprocessing; model training; and super-short-term power prediction for a photovoltaic power station according to the model. According to the super-short-term power prediction method based on the clearance model, the clearance model of the photovoltaic power station by combination of the clearance model of solar irradiance with output characteristics of the photovoltaic power station, the theoretical maximum output of the photovoltaic power station at specific time can be calculated, and the super-short-term power prediction model is established by employing normalization data and combining with autoregression time sequences on the basis of the theoretical maximum output, accordingly, the prediction accuracy is effectively improved.