Forecasting method for port area short-time traffic flow under model of reservation cargo concentration in port

• Main Authors: SHEN CHAN, GONG FENGGANG, XU JIANPING, FENG WEI, ZHAO JIANWEI, BAI ZIJIAN, ZHANG YONG, ZHOU LIWEI, ZHONG SHIQUAN, ZHANG CHAOQING, ZHANG ZHANLING, WANG XIAOHUA, HUANG WEN, WANG YINHONG, WANG XINQI, HE HAI
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 28.07.2010
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SIGNALLING; TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS

The invention discloses a forecasting method for a port area short-time traffic flow under a model of reservation cargo concentration in port, which belongs to the technical field of port area traffic management. The method comprises the following steps of: dividing traffic generation regions and attract regions, and obtaining the sub-period distribution rule of historical traffic in various traffic generation regions and attract regions; determining the traffic attract regions and the traffic volume; determining the corresponding back storage yards, obtaining the distribution of the traffic generation regions and the traffic volume; determining the relevant section at the upstream of the forecast road section according to the extension length at the opposite direction of the upstream-road traffic flow of the forecast road section in forecast periods; establishing a knowledge base; measuring the turn rate for the upstream/downstream road sections in each forecast period in real time; extracting the turn rate