PROBABILISTIC CAPACITY PLANNING IN A POWER SYSTEM

• Main Authors: MAHANI, KHASHAYAR, FARZAN, FARNAZ, MASIELLO, RALPH DAVID
• Format: Patent
• Language: English; French
• Published: 09.05.2024
• Subjects: CALCULATING; CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTINGELECTRIC POWER; COMPUTING; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRICITY; GENERATION; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

A method is disclosed for distributed energy resource (DER) and/or electrification capacity planning in a power system. The method includes obtaining, for each of multiple electrical nodes in a circuit model of the power system, parameters of a probability distribution function describing respective probabilities of different amounts of DERs and/or electrification being added at the electrical node. The method further comprises calculating an existing hosting capacity of the power system and/or infrastructure requirements to achieve a target hosting capacity of the power system, by solving an optimization problem that is subject to a reasonability constraint. The reasonability constraint constrains a distribution of amounts of DERs and/or electrification added at respective electrical nodes to being within a space of reasonable distributions which, according to the obtained parameters, each are within a defined confidence level. The method may also comprise reporting information associated with the existing hosting capacity and/or the infrastructure requirements.