Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of varicella trends in Yangpu District， Shanghai， from 2005 to 2022

• Published in: Shanghai Yufang Yixue Vol. 35; no. 10; pp. 993 - 998
• Main Authors: DU Jiaxi, QIN Yongfa, HAN Xue, LU Qin, LI Jia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Shanghai Preventive Medicine Association 01.10.2023
• Subjects: arima model; epidemiology; prediction; varicella
• ISSN: 1004-9231
• DOI: 10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2023.23055

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2005 to 2022， predict the trend of varicella in Yangpu District in 2023， and provide evidence for prevention and control of varicella outbreaks.MethodsInformation of varicella cases reported in Yangpu District from 2005 to 2022 was obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize the varicella epidemiology. An autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model was established by using the number of cases per month from 2005 to2022 to predict the trend of varicella epidemics in Yangpu District in 2023. The varicella incidence in 2022 was used to evaluate the fitness of the ARIMA model.ResultsFrom January 2005 to December 2021， a total of 11 527 cases of varicella were reported in Yangpu District， Shanghai. After excluding duplicates and clinical diagnoses， 11 413 cases were included into the analysis. The annual average incidenc