Intensity of Rubber Planted and Population Urbanization: A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of Cities and Counties in Hainan Island

• Published in: Redai dili Vol. 43; no. 12; pp. 2429 - 2442
• Main Authors: Liu Ruijin, Liu Dong, He Changhui, Wu Wei, Chen Bangqian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Editorial Committee of Tropical Geography 01.12.2023
• Subjects: employment structure; farmers' income; hainan island; natural rubber; population urbanization; spatial econometric models for panel data
• ISSN: 1001-5221
• DOI: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003791

Population urbanization is the core of new urbanization in China and is an important task in the long term. Based on mediation effect models, spatial panel data econometric models, and coupling coordination models, this study attempts to identify the direct and indirect effects of the proportion of rubber-planted areas and the indications of population urbanization using panel data of counties on Hainan Island, explaining the mechanism. The results show that rubber plantations dominated by state-owned farms weakly impacted farmers' income in 1992-2002 (first phrase), and the effects became positive in the period of smallholding expansions from 2003 to 2013 (second phrase) at a statistically significant level of 10%. However, the effects became negative between 2013 and 2020 (third phrase) due to the continuously low prices of natural rubber compared to the second phrase; the regions with higher share of rubber plantations had less local fiscal revenues per capita—especially in the third phrase—mainly because