A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I.R.Iran and K.Saudi Arabia

• Published in: آینده‌پژوهی دفاعی Vol. 4; no. 13; pp. 111 - 141
• Main Authors: Hosein Ghanbari Amoghien, Abbasali Rastgar, Davood Feiz
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Command and Staff University 01.08.2019
• Subjects: comparative study; futurology; scenario forecasting; system dynamics; wargaming
• ISSN: 2588-428X; 2645-7172
• DOI: 10.22034/dfsr.2019.36545

Recent developments in decades of defensive technologies, as well as defensive thinking, such as the spread of a quick war on the planet, the network of warfare, and the emergence of free and open access to the virtual media have transformed the face of the wars. This transformation has led to new features for wars. War is one of the most challenging arenas of decision making for mankind. The advancement of technology and the evolution of war have forced commanders to make important decisions in short periods. Due to the complex nature of war and difficaulty of the fast analysis of its environment for human mind, its nessecary for commanders to use computer modeling methods to making better decisions. One of these methods is System Dynamics. Its important ability is calculating simultaneous effect of many variables on each other. In this Research the researcher tried to use system dynamics for executing the causal models of experts on the I.R.I and K.S.A Military conflict issue. Along with that, with a qualitative approach, the researcher reports the difficaulties of applying SD for strategic security and defensive issues and at the end, makes some suggestions for better modeling of these issues.