Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Water Conservation Function in Yunnan Province Based on Climate and Land Use Change

• Published in: Shui tu bao chi xue bao Vol. 38; no. 5; pp. 212 - 224
• Main Authors: LIU Fengru, ZHAO Junsan, LIN Yilin, CHEN Guoping, ZHANG Longjiang, PENG Sufen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Editorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 01.10.2024
• Subjects: cmip6; geographic detector with optimal parameters; invest model; sd-plus model; water conservation
• ISSN: 1009-2242
• DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.05.033

[Objective] Exploring the water-holding function is an important way to cope with future climate change. Existing research mainly focuses on the assessment of historical and current water-holding function, and lacks the understanding of the future water-holding function, which limits the value of guiding the sustainable development and dynamic management of the region. [Methods] Taking Yunnan Province as an example, this paper combined the system dynamics model, patch-level land use change simulation model (PLUS model), and InVEST model to build a water conservation evaluation framework under the impact of future climate and land use change. The framework can predict land use change and assess water conservation in the context of future climate change and different economic developments. Water conservation in Yunnan Province was evaluated based on the coupling scenarios of three shared socioeconomic paths and typical concentration paths (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The main driving factors of temporal and