Analysis of Hydrological Elements and Runoff Prediction in Tao'er River Basin under Land Use and Climate Change

• Published in: Shui tu bao chi xue bao Vol. 39; no. 2; pp. 390 - 400
• Main Authors: MA Liguo, LIU Jianwei, PANG Xiaoteng, JING Haihua
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Editorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 01.04.2025
• Subjects: cmip6 climate model; plus land use; runoff prediction; swat modeling
• ISSN: 1009-2242
• DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.02.006

［Objective］ To reveal the characteristics of the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Tao'er River basin, and to predict the future evolution of runoff in the basin. ［Methods］ Taking the Tao'er River basin as the study area, the runoff response process of the watershed was quantitatively analyzed based on the SWAT model with the CMIP6 climate model and PLUS model driving meteorological and land use changes, respectively, to project development scenarios for 2025—2100. ［Results］ 1) The SWAT model had an R2>0.75 and an NSE>0.65 for both the rate period and the validation period. The overall accuracy of the PLUS model was >0.85, and the Kappa coefficient was >0.80, and the two models had good applicability in this watershed.2) Relative to the baseline period (1990—2022), the Tao'er River Basin received higher precipitation under all three future scenarios than during the historical period, as shown by SSP126>SSP585>SSP245, and higher temperatures under all three future scenarios than during t