Analysis of Immigration Patterns Pre and Post Democratic Transition: Evidence from Tunisia

• Published in: Majallat al-tanmiyah wa-al-siyāsāt al-iqtiṣādīyah Vol. 26; no. 2; pp. 29 - 62
• Main Author: Arifa, Meriam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 29.07.2024
• ISSN: 1561-0411
• DOI: 10.34066/jodep.24.26.2.3

This paper delves into the impact of Tunisia's democratic transition, stemming from the Arab Spring, on immigration patterns. Leveraging data from four waves of the Arab Barometer Survey, the study employs a Probit model to scrutinise shifts in the probability of immigration pre and post the democratic transition. The paper extends to a robustness check via a Changes-in-Changes framework, with Tunisia as a treatment group and Algeria as a control group. Findings indicate that immigration patterns in Tunisia have not diminished post-democratic transition but have instead intensified. This trend is supported by the Chow Test. Moreover, the study reveals the presence of the brain drain phenomenon. On average, Tunisians demonstrate an increased inclination toward immigration post-democratic transition compared to Algerians. These patterns could be attributed to unmet economic demands precipitating the 2011 revolution, coupled with expectations of swift reforms, and the subsequent lack of immediate improvements in economic conditions following democratisation.