Structural Deceleration, Financial Expansion and Policy Selection： China＇s Economic Prospects for 2014
China＇s economic performance in 2013 has verified that China＇s economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical. Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector. Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable. Financial expa...
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| Published in | 中国经济学人：英文版 no. 3; pp. 4 - 18 |
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| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
2014
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| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1673-8837 |
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| Summary: | China＇s economic performance in 2013 has verified that China＇s economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical. Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector. Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable. Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China＇s economic growth in 2013. But structural root cause of slowdown remains. According to cash flow statement, balance sheet and cross-border capital flow, risks of China ＇s financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion. Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand. Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform, including political reform, reform of supply mechanism, balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition, and reform of financial system. |
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| Bibliography: | ZhangPing SuZhi（InstituteofEconomics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences（CASS）,Beoing,ChinaSchoolofStatisticsandMathematics,CentralUniversofFinanceandEconomics,Beijing,China） economic transition, structural deceleration, financial expansion, policychoice 11-5578/F China＇s economic performance in 2013 has verified that China＇s economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical. Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector. Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable. Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China＇s economic growth in 2013. But structural root cause of slowdown remains. According to cash flow statement, balance sheet and cross-border capital flow, risks of China ＇s financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion. Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand. Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform, including political reform, reform of supply mechanism, balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition, and reform of financial system. |
| ISSN: | 1673-8837 |