Econometric Profit Forecasts of a Company Selling Sports Equipment

• Published in: Journal of Physical Education and Sport Vol. 20; pp. 1180 - 1187
• Main Authors: Wiśniewski, Witold Jerzy, Sokołowska, Ewelina
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Pitesti Universitatea din Pitesti 01.04.2020
• Subjects: 21st century; Corporate profits; Econometrics; Internet; Profitability; Regression analysis; Sporting goods; Statistical Data; Stock exchanges; Swimming pools; Variables; Poland
• ISSN: 2247-8051; 2247-806X
• DOI: 10.7752/jpes.2020.s2164

Sport infrastructure has been developing dynamically in Poland since the beginning of the 21st century. Sport fields/arenas, bicycle paths, swimming pools, recreation centers in parks and in housing estates are being built. This causes a great need for sporting equipment. The demand for sporting equipment is fostered by the sporting successes achieved by Poles in many disciplines. The level of household affluence has also been increasing, which is conducive to this type of spending. The subject of this study entails the profit of an enterprise selling sporting equipment via the Internet. Profit is an enterprise characteristic which does not belong to the categories analyzed using econometrics tools. As such, literature lacks publications on the subject of enterprise profit forecasting. Literature also lacks econometric models describing the mechanisms of profit variability. Only works addressing the issue of optimization models can be found, where profit functions as a goal. The purpose of this work is to describe the mechanism of enterprise-profitability variability using a stochastic econometric model. The econometric model's equations include causal conditions, autoregression, a trend and seasonal fluctuations. The volatility mechanisms of three profit measures has been examined: the sales, the operating and the net profit. A recursive mechanism has been considered, examining the impact on profit of such factors as: the company's sales volume and the economic situation represented by the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG). Positive verification of the empirical model allowed construction of short-term profit forecasts for the enterprise. To estimate the profit forecasts, extrapolative forecasts of profit factors have been used, i.e. the sales revenues and the value of the WIG index. The quality of the profit forecasts , therefore, depend on the quality of the forecasts of these profit factors.