Exploring the Casual Machinery Behind Sex Ratios at Birth: Does Hepatitis B Play a Role?

This note directly addresses the evidence of causality in the HBV/sex-ratio association by reassessing the evidence from this natural experiment. I find that repeating Oster's original analysis in a different data set -- one that is better suited to addressing the question -- produces striking...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEconomic development and cultural change Vol. 59; no. 1; pp. 1 - 21
Main Author Hamoudi, Amar
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.10.2010
Subjects
Causality
Childbirth
Diseases
Estimation
Evidence
Hepatitis
Hepatitis B
Immunization
Natural sciences
Sex
Sex ratios
Social sciences
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Summary:This note directly addresses the evidence of causality in the HBV/sex-ratio association by reassessing the evidence from this natural experiment. I find that repeating Oster's original analysis in a different data set -- one that is better suited to addressing the question -- produces striking different results. In addition, I find that the significance of both the original results & the results of the replication are highly sensitive to the method by which the variance of the regression is estimated; when the variance is estimated properly, there is no evidence that the vaccination campaign had any effect on sex ratios at birth. These findings call into question the only evidence of causality in the HBV/sex-of-offspring association in either the social or medical science literatures. Understanding the casual machinery underlying sex determination is an important objective for natural & social scientists. However, HBV does not appear to play a role; attention may be better directed elsewhere. Adapted from the source document.
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ISSN:0013-0079