Early models successfully predicted global warming

[...]climate models have always been run on the fastest supercomputers available. [...]regional climate change is especially subject to unpredictable climate variability, which greatly limits forecasting potential - even on decadal timescales when the climate drivers are known5. [...]on the basis of...

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Published inNature (London) Vol. 578; no. 7793; pp. 1 - 2
Main Author Kay, Jennifer E
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group 06.02.2020
Subjects
Acidification
Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate variability
Computer simulation
Drought
Emissions
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Marine ecosystems
Ocean acidification
Regional climates
Sea level
Sea level rise
Supercomputers
Variability
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Summary:[...]climate models have always been run on the fastest supercomputers available. [...]regional climate change is especially subject to unpredictable climate variability, which greatly limits forecasting potential - even on decadal timescales when the climate drivers are known5. [...]on the basis of GMST forecasts alone, it is hard to predict, for example: to what extent sea level will rise; how ocean acidification caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2 will influence marine ecosystems; and the frequency and magnitude of future fires, droughts and floods. Scientists will have to continue to improve climate modelling and to increase their understanding of the effects of climate change, while keeping in mind the tension between the need for increased model resolution, greater representation of climatically relevant processes, and more simulations to characterize unpredictable climate variability.
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ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/d41586-020-00243-w