Predicting CO sub(2) and SO sub(2) Emissions in the Baltic States Through Reorganization of Energy Infrastructure

• Published in: Environment international Vol. 30; no. 8; p. 1045
• Main Authors: Denafas, Gintaras, Sitnikovas, Denisas, Galinis, Arvydas, Kudrenickis, Ivars, Klavs, Gaidis, Kuusik, Rein
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.10.2004
• Subjects: Lithuania; Latvia; Estonia
• ISSN: 0160-4120
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2004.05.004

The Balmorel model, which analyzes the electricity and combined heat and power markets in the Baltic Sea region, was used to forecast electricity generation to 2020. The model optimizes the production at existing and planned production units and reflects restrictions in the system due to environmental taxes and quotas. Specifically, the model was applied to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to explore the impact of a changing energy infrastructure on emissions of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Modeling results suggested that, after the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant, CO sub(2) emissions will grow significantly due to the input of the Lithuanian power plant and the Estonian/Baltic power plant. Emissions of SO sub(2) should also increase significantly. The impact of the increases in emissions on compliance with international environmental agreements is considered.