Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Kunming City Based on InVEST and CA-Markov Model

• Published in: Huanjing kexue Vol. 45; no. 1; p. 287
• Main Authors: Wusimanjiang, Paruke, Ai, Dong, Fang, Yi-Shu, Zhang, Yi-Bin, Li, Mu, Hao, Jin-Min
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: China 08.01.2024
• Subjects: Kunming City; carbon storage; InVEST model; land use change; CA-Markov model
• ISSN: 0250-3301
• DOI: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202302060

Land use/cover change is an important driving factor for carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems and affects the carbon cycle of the whole ecosystem. Taking Kunming City as a case study, based on the modified carbon density coefficient, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage changes in the terrestrial ecosystem under different land use scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and "three-line" constraints by coupling the carbon storage module of the InVEST model and CA-Markov model. The results showed that:① cultivated land, forest land, and grassland were the main types of land use in Kunming City, and land use transfer also occurred among the three types. ② From 2000 to 2020, the overall carbon storage in Kunming City was low in the south and high in the north, and the carbon storage decreased yearly with a cumulative loss of 5.27×10 t. The degradation of forest land and grassland was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③ From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of t