Prognostic modelling and proactive intervention in psychosis: efficacy and cost-effectiveness

• Published in: Tijdschrift voor psychiatrie Vol. 58; no. 10; p. 695
• Main Authors: van der Gaag, M, Ising, H, Lokkerbol, J, Smit, F
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Dutch
• Published: Netherlands 2016
• Subjects: Cognitive Therapy - economics; Cognitive Therapy - standards; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Health Care Costs; Humans; Prognosis; Psychiatric Status Rating Scales - standards; Psychotic Disorders - diagnosis; Psychotic Disorders - economics; Psychotic Disorders - therapy; Risk Assessment; Treatment Outcome
• ISSN: 0303-7339

Diagnoses have heterogeneous outcomes, varying from good to extremely poor. There is a need to single out an ultra-high-risk group of individuals who have illnesses that might well end unfavourably or who might later develop serious psychopathology. AIM: To devise a screening instrument that can identify a group of individuals who run a very high risk of developing a first-episode psychosis, and to create a type of intervention that can modify the course of the illness. METHOD: We developed a short screening instrument (PQ-16) and were able to ascertain its predictive value. We also tested an intervention that could influence risk factors and deal with emerging symptoms thereby achieving a better outcome for the patient. RESULTS: We developed a two-step detection instrument with a positive predictive value of 44%. The intervention, involving cognitive behavioural therapy for ultra-high-risk patients, was effective and led to a risk reduction of about 50%. Using the ultra-high-risk group of patients, we were able to model three prognostic profiles, each carrying a 4%, 13%, and 70% risk of subsequently developing psychosis. The intervention was cost-effective, reducing the financial burden on the health care services and on society as a whole. CONCLUSION: Prognostic modelling and proactive intervention can achieve improvements in health at lower costs.