A Probability Estimation of Aircraft Departures and Arrivals Delays

• Published in: Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2021 Vol. 12950; pp. 363 - 377
• Main Authors: Ostroumov, Ivan, Kuzmenko, Nataliia, Sushchenko, Olga, Zaliskyi, Maksym, Solomentsev, Oleksandr, Averyanova, Yuliya, Zhyla, Simeon, Pavlikov, Vladimir, Tserne, Eduard, Volosyuk, Valerii, Dergachov, Kostiantyn, Havrylenko, Olena, Shmatko, Oleksandr, Popov, Anatoliy, Ruzhentsev, Nikolay, Kuznetsov, Borys, Nikitina, Tatyana
• Format: Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland Springer International Publishing AG 2021; Springer International Publishing
• Series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
• Subjects: Air traffic delays; Airplane trajectory; Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast; Aviation; Big data; Kernel density estimator; Linear regression; Probability density function; Software defined radio; Spline function; Transport
• ISBN: 9783030869595; 3030869598
• ISSN: 0302-9743; 1611-3349
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86960-1_26

Delays in air transport systems have a significant impact on the safety of aviation. We propose to use a trajectory of airplanes to estimate time of airplane delay. Surveillance data is obtained using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast receiver. A network of software defined radios is used to receive position reports of particular airspace user transmitted by airplane transponder of Mode 1090ES. Linear regression with a spline function is used for airplane trajectory approximation and time synchronization. Delays are estimated based on rapid changing of airplane altitude with respect to runway elevation in comparison with a scheduled time. Statistical data of airplane take-off time, landing time, and flight duration based on numerous historical flights is analyzed. Probabilities of airplane delays during take-off and landing are estimated with a help of the Kernel density function. Proposed approach for probability estimation of aircraft departures and arrivals delays can be useful in air traffic management and airline planning for efficient usage of aviation transport system.