Arterial Thromboembolism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score 1: A Nationwide Study

• Published in: Circulation (New York, N.Y.) Vol. 149; no. 10; pp. 764 - 773
• Main Authors: Østergaard, Lauge, Olesen, Jonas Bjerring, Petersen, Jeppe Kofoed, Nielsen, Lukas Schak, Kristensen, Søren Lund, Schou, Morten, Køber, Lars, Fosbøl, Emil
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 05.03.2024
• ISSN: 1524-4539
• DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.066477

BACKGROUNDOral anticoagulation is suggested in patients with atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and sex score). To assess granular differences within CHA2DS2-VASc 1, the incidence of arterial thromboembolism according to CHA2DS2-VASc 1 subgroups was examined.METHODSThe Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Prescription Registry were linked on a nationwide level to identify patients with atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2021 without oral anticoagulation and categorized according to CHA2DS2-VASc score: CHA2DS2-VASc 0 (male and female subjects); CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (hypertension, heart failure, diabetes, vascular disease, and age 65-74 years); or CHA2DS2-VASc 2 (age ≥75 years without other risk factors). Female sex was not considered a risk factor in any risk group. The outcome was arterial thromboembolism (ischemic stroke, embolism of extremity, or transient cerebral ischemia). Study groups were compared using Cox regression analysis.RESULTSWe included 26 701 patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc 0 score; 22 915 with CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (1483 patients with heart failure, 9066 with hypertension, 843 with diabetes, 770 with vascular disease, and 10 753 who were 65 to 74 years of age); and 14 525 patients with CHA2DS2-VASc 2 (≥75 years of age without other risk factors). With a median of 1 year of observation time, the cumulative incidence of arterial thromboembolism was 0.6% (n=154 [95% CI, 0.6%-0.8%]), 1.4% (n=16 [95% CI, 0.8%-2.2%]), 1.9% (n=141 [95% CI, 1.6%-2.2%]), 1.7% (n=12 [95% CI, 0.9%-2.9%]), 2.0% (n=13 [95% CI, 1.1%-3.4%]), 2.3% (n=187 [95% CI, 2.0%-2.7%]), and 4.4% (n=533 [95% CI, 4.1%-4.8%]) for CHA2DS2-VASc 0, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years (CHA2DS2-VASc 1), and age ≥75 years (CHA2DS2-VASc 2), respectively. No statistically significant difference was identified among subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (P=0.15 for difference).CONCLUSIONSFor patients with atrial fibrillation, all subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1 were associated with lower incidence of arterial thromboembolism compared with age ≥75 years without other risk factors (ie, CHA2DS2-VASc 2) and a higher incidence compared with CHA2DS2-VASc 0. No statistically significant difference was identified between the subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1. These findings support current recommendations that patients within this intermediate risk group could be identified with a similar risk of arterial thromboembolism.