Ecological stability in response to warming

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 4; no. 3; pp. 206 - 210
• Main Authors: Fussmann, Katarina E., Schwarzmüller, Florian, Brose, Ulrich, Jousset, Alexandre, Rall, Björn C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.03.2014; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 631/158/2165; Bioenergetics; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Ecosystems; Endangered & extinct species; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Extinction; Feeding rates; letter; Metabolism; Phylogenetics; Population number; Population stability; Prey; Species diversity; Species extinction; Temperature
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2134

Although many species-level responses to climate warming have been documented, understanding of ecosystem-level stability under warming remains low. Now, a study using meta-analyses of temperature effects on metabolic rates, reeding rates and population sizes along with a mechanistic predator–prey model finds that warming stabilizes predator–prey dynamics but risks predator starvation. That species’ biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments 1 . The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in response under warming remains correspondingly high. In previous studies, severe consumer extinction waves in warmed microcosms 2 were explained in terms of warming-induced destabilization of population oscillations 3 . Here, we show that warming stabilizes predator–prey dynamics at the risk of predator extinction. Our results are based on meta-analyses of a global database of temperature effects on metabolic and feeding rates and maximum population size that includes species of different phylogenetic groups and ecosystem types. To unravel population-level consequences we parameterized a bioenergetic predator–prey model 4 and simulated warming effects within ecological, non-evolutionary timescales. In contrast to previous studies 3 , we find that warming stabilized population oscillations up to a threshold temperature, which is true for most of the possible parameter combinations. Beyond the threshold level, warming caused predator extinction due to starvation. Predictions were tested in a microbial predator–prey system. Together, our results indicate a major change in how we expect climate change to alter natural ecosystems: warming should increase population stability while undermining species diversity.