Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

• Published in: Física de la tierra Vol. 27; p. 223
• Main Authors: San Jose, Roberto, Perez, Juan Luis, Perez, Libia, Gonzalez, Rosa Maria, Pecci, Julia, Garzon, Antonio, Palacios, Marino
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Spanish
• Published: Madrid Universidad Complutense de Madrid 01.01.2015
• Subjects: Aerosols; Atmospheric aerosols; Atmospheric models; Cities; Climate; Computer simulation; Control systems; Control theory; Feedback; Health; Health risk assessment; Marine; Meteorology; Spatial resolution; Europe; ANE, Finland, Etelae-Suomi, Helsinki; ANE, Europe; British Isles, England, Greater London, London; A, Atlantic; Spain, Castilla, Madrid
• ISSN: 0214-4557; 1988-2440
• DOI: 10.5209/rev_FITE.2015.v27.51201

In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m super( 2) and 8.5 W/m super( 2) for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the "no feedback" simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects.