A Game-Transformation-Based Framework to Understand Initial Conditions and Outcomes in the Context of Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations (CIOs)

• Published in: Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling Vol. 12268; pp. 288 - 297
• Main Authors: Nandakumar, Girish Sreevatsan, Padilla, Jose
• Format: Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland Springer International Publishing AG 2020; Springer International Publishing
• Series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
• Subjects: CIO; Game theory; Scenario planning
• ISBN: 3030612546; 9783030612542
• ISSN: 0302-9743; 1611-3349
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-61255-9_28

A hybrid methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative analytical techniques is discussed in the context of Cyber-enabled Influence Operations (CIOs). Beginning with primary inputs from detailed qualitative analyses of political, economic, social, technological, and legal ground realities, our Game-Transformation-based Framework uses 2 × 2 games - with ordinal rankings of preferences as payoffs - to attain a macro-level perspective. Using the periodic table of 2 × 2 games, we show how payoff swaps, which represent shifts in ground realities, can change the nature of the game and therefore the resulting equilibrium. Our framework’s exploration of various permutations, that hypothetical changes in input might lead to, can be used by analysts and policymakers to reverse-engineer favorable scenarios. The framework is useful for scenario planning as it allows for both detailed micro-level analyses and strategic macro-level analyses.