SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis

• Published in: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
• Main Authors: Nemira, Alina, Adeniyi, Ayotomiwa Ezekiel, Gasich, Elena L, Bulda, Kirill Y, Valentovich, Leonid N, Krasko, Anatoly G, Glebova, Olga, Kirpich, Alexander, Skums, Pavel
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States 19.04.2021
• DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.13.21255404

Since the emergence of COVID-19, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented by governments and public health authorities world-wide to control and curb the ongoing pandemic spread. From that perspective, Belarus is one of a few countries with a relatively modern healthcare system, where much narrower NPIs have been put in place. Given the uniqueness of this Belarusian experience, the understanding its COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics is essential not only for the local assessment, but also for a better insight into the impact of different NPI strategies globally. In this work, we integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the country. The observed Belarusian SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity originated from at least eighteen separate introductions, at least five of which resulted in on-going domestic transmissions. The introduction sources represent a wide variety of regions, although the proportion of regional virus introductions and exports from/to geographical neighbors appears to be higher than for other European countries. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction in the effective reproductive number ℛ after the introduction of limited NPIs, with the reduction magnitude generally being lower than for countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the estimate of the Belarusian ℛ at the early epidemic stage is comparable with this number for the neighboring ex-USSR country of Ukraine, where much broader NPIs have been implemented. The actual number of cases by the end of May, 2020 was predicted to be 2-9 times higher than the detected number of cases.