도시계획 적용을 위한 도시홍수 취약성 및 리스크 평가

• Published in: 국토계획 Vol. 53; no. 5; pp. 185 - 206
• Main Authors: 이상혁(Lee, Sang-hyeok), 강정은(Kang, Jung Eun)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 대한국토·도시계획학회 01.10.2018
• Subjects: 공학일반; Urban flood; MCMC Simulation; Urban Planning; Risk Assessment; Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment; MCMC 시뮬레이션; 기후변화 취약성 분석; 도시계획; 도시홍수; 리스크 평가
• ISSN: 1226-7147; 2383-9171
• DOI: 10.17208/jkpa.2018.10.53.5.185

본 연구는 최근 도시계획 수립을 위해 도입된 도시 기후변화 재해취약성 평가 방법과 새롭게 강조되고 있는 리스크 평가 방법을 주요 자연재난인 홍수를 대상으로 적용하여, 평가과정과 평가결과를 비교하고자 한다. 이를 기반으로 기후변화 재해평가 방법론의 다양화와 개선방안을 도출하고자하였다. This study conducted two flood assessments and compared their methods, procedures, and outcomes for applying to urban planning: a flood vulnerability assessment in accordance with the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment adopted by the government and a probabilistic risk assessment stressed by IPCC. The flood vulnerability assessment employed the indicator method based on the manual and guidelines. The probabilistic risk was defined as a product of the probability of occurrence and its effect. It used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which is effective in random number generation and machine learning based on the Bayesian concept. The results of two evaluations focused on Busan show that while spatial distributions of risk areas are quite similar, risk area calculated by flood vulnerability assessment is a little larger than risk assessment due to different units of analysis, used data, and assessment methodology. Risk assessment provides more accurate results, but assessment method is complicated, while vulnerability assessment is easy to use, results cannot be quantitatively validated. Therefore, the combination of vulnerability and risk assessment is considered meaningful as it could improve existing flood assessments and contribute to decision making to establish safer cities. KCI Citation Count: 10