고장률의 불확실구간을 고려한 빈도구간과 결정론적 빈도의 설명력 연구

• Published in: 한국안전학회지 Vol. 39; no. 3; pp. 75 - 83
• Main Authors: 한만형, Man Hyeong Han, 천영우, Young Woo Chon, 황용우, Yong Woo Hwang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국안전학회 30.06.2024
• Subjects: deterministic risk assessment; monte calro; probabilistic risk assessment; probability; uncertainty interval; 안전공학; monte calro; uncertainty interval; deterministic risk assessment; probabilistic risk assessment; probability
• ISSN: 1738-3803; 2383-9953
• DOI: 10.14346/JKOSOS.2024.39.3.75

Accurately assessing and managing risks in any endeavor is crucial. Risk assessment in engineering translates the abstract concept of risk into actionable strategies for systematic risk management. However, risk validation is met with significant skepticism, particularly concerning the uncertainty of probability. This study aims to address the aforementioned uncertainty in a multitude of ways. Firstly, instead of relying on deterministic probability, it acknowledges uncertainty and presents a probabilistic interval. Secondly, considering the uncertainty interval highlighted in OREDA, it delineates the bounds of the probabilistic interval. Lastly, it investigates how much explanatory power deterministic probability has within the defined probabilistic interval. By utilizing fault tree analysis (FTA) and integrating confidence intervals, a probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to scrutinize the explanatory power of deterministic probability. In this context, explanatory power signifies the proportion of probability within the probabilistic risk assessment interval that lies below the deterministic probability. Research results reveal that at a 90% confidence interval, the explanatory power of deterministic probability decreases to 73%. Additionally, it was confirmed that explanatory power reached 100% only with a probability application 36.9 times higher.