대리변수를 이용한 한반도 수질 및 수생태계 부문의 기후변화 취약성 평가

• Published in: 한국물환경학회지 Vol. 28; no. 3; pp. 444 - 452
• Main Authors: 이건행, 정유진, 김경현, 유정아, 이은정, Lee, Keon Haeng, Chung, Eu Gene, Kim, Kyunghyun, Yu, Jeong Ah, Lee, Eun Jeong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국물환경학회 30.05.2012
• Subjects: 환경공학; Delphi survey; Climate change; Proxy variables; Vulnerability assessment
• ISSN: 2289-0971; 2289-098X

This study aims at assessing vulnerability of water quality and aquatic ecosystem to climate change by using proxy variables. Vulnerability to climate change is defined as a function of exposure to climate, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Detailed proxy variables were selected considering availability and then standardized by re-scaling concept. After adequate weights were assigned to standardized proxy variables by Delphi technique, vulnerability index was calculated. As results, vulnerability of adjacent regions to coastal areas include water quality and aquatic ecosystem is relatively higher than that of inland areas, and especially adjacent region to the western and southeast seas, and Jeju show high vulnerabilities. Vulnerability in the future was performed based on A1B scenario (IPCC, 2000). Temporally, the increase of vulnerability from 2050s to 2100s may be larger than the increase from 2000s to 2050s. Because vulnerability index was estimated through the relationship among various proxy variables, it is important to consider characteristics of local region with measurements and policies for reduction of sensitivity and enhancement of adaptive capacity on climate change. This study is expected to be useful in planning adaptation measures and selecting priority to the policy on climate change.