한국 조선업수요환경과 환율변화에 따른 수출효과

• Published in: 무역연구 Vol. 21; no. 2; pp. 217 - 232
• Main Author: 김종권(Jong-Kwon Kim)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국무역연구원 30.04.2025; The Korea International Trade Research Institute
• Subjects: 무역학; VECM; Export; MRO; Shipbuilding; ARIMA
• ISSN: 1738-8112; 2384-1958

Purpose – The main goal of this study was to determine the growth of the Korean shipbuilding industry after 2025. This is related to research implications of the global demand for Korean shipbuilding and the export improvement effect according to exchange rate changes. Design/Methodology/Approach – In the case of cooperation the United States and the Korean shipbuilding industry in the naval sector, other than core strategic assets such as nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, the high added value of the Korean shipbuilding industry and overseas demand for defense projects including submarines are direct trends of increasing demand for the Korean shipbuilding industry. Using the VECM model, the study examined the response of the export volume increase/decrease rate of Korean ships to a standard deviation change of one unit in the won/dollar exchange rate. Findings – It was found that the effect on the increase in the export volume of Korean ships after the won/dollar exchange rate rise phase may not be limited to a short period of one year through this study. Research Implications – The economic effects of the impact on the Korean shipbuilding industry based on the exchange rate are all positive. Therefore, the research implications of this study are that investment in research and development and the securing of high-quality human resources for the continued development of the Korean shipbuilding industry should continue to be pursued well into the future. KCI Citation Count: 0