CPTPP 가입 이후 캐나다 무역환경의 변화가 한국무역에 미치는 영향

• Published in: 무역연구 Vol. 17; no. 1; pp. 423 - 439
• Main Author: 김종권(Jong-Kwon Kim)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국무역연구원 28.02.2021; The Korea International Trade Research Institute
• Subjects: 무역학; Canada; North American Markets; USMCA; CPTPP; ARIMA
• ISSN: 1738-8112; 2384-1958
• DOI: 10.16980/jitc.17.1.202102.423

Purpose - This analysis is related to research on a model to estimate whether there is a change in Korean trade due to Canada’s CPTPP accession and changes in the North American trade environment. Design/Methodology/Approach - From January 2015 to August 2020, the growth rate of Korea’s exports to Canada increased by 2.79% on average, and the standard deviation value reached 26.89%. Therefore, it was found that the standard deviation was relatively large, indicating that when Korea exported to Canada, the increase or decrease in Korea’s exports was severe due to tariffs or economic conditions. Accordingly, it is also necessary to examine how changes in the export environment such as Canadian policy or CPTPP membership can affect Korean exports to Canada from a long-term perspective. Findings - It is based on the results estimated from model of the ARIMA (1,1,0) over the period from 2015 to 2021 for the last four years, and it was found that Korea’s export growth rate to Canada will move around 10% in 2021. Research Implications - This can be inferred that the fluctuations in the growth rate of Korea’s exports to Canada may be greater when the impact of Canada’s CPTPP membership and the USMCA centered on the United States is visible. Therefore, in order to stabilize Korea’s export growth rate to Canada, a detailed analysis of North American markets such as Canada, Mexico and the United States should be additionally conducted. KCI Citation Count: 3