Analysis of air pollution and human health from historical and modern perspectives: Study of the public health impacts of the London 1952 smog, sensitivity analyses of ambient tropospheric ozone to precursor emissions and estimation of subsequent health effects

• Main Author: Bell, Michelle Lee
• Format: Dissertation
• Language: English
• Published: ProQuest Dissertations & Theses 01.01.2003
• Subjects: Air pollution; Environmental engineering; Environmental science; Ozone; Public health; Smog
• ISBN: 049387643X; 9780493876436

The detrimental health effects of air pollution have been recognized for centuries, yet they remain an important problem worldwide. This research investigates that relationship from historical and modern perspectives. The first part of this dissertation investigates a historically significant air pollution episode in London in December 1952. Pollutant concentrations followed similar patterns as multiple indicators of mortality and morbidity. Only a small portion of the excess mortality in the months following the fog can be attributed to influenza, contrary to claims by initial government reports. Pollution appears to have caused approximately 12,000 excess deaths, rather than the 3,000 typically reported. Annual pollutant levels in over 150 cities worldwide were examined and found to pose a serious threat to health when compared to regulations and levels that occurred in London 1952. The second part of this work examined tropospheric ozone, one of the most complicated air pollution problems today. Meteorological and air pollution modeling systems were used to assess ozone concentrations for three case studies covering two geographic regions and multiple emissions scenarios. Results indicate that the proposed 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard will be exceeded in more places and more often than the original 1-hour standard. More people live in areas with unhealthy ozone levels than compliance with the original requirement suggests. Several modified emissions scenarios were used to investigate how ozone levels respond to changes in precursor emissions, with special consideration to the relative contributions of anthropogenic versus biogenic and volatile organic compound (VOC) versus nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. Results indicate that impacts are not uniformly distributed, even for a single emissions strategy. Changes in biogenic VOCs impacted ozone levels more than other emissions adjustments. The largest increases in ozone occurred in areas with high baseline pollution levels. Some regions responded more dramatically to changes in NOx. Epidemiological research was combined with model results to estimate the health effects of emissions scenarios. Considerable impacts were estimated for mortality, hospital admissions, and emergency room visits. Significant challenges remain for air quality management, but they merit serious attention in light of the historical and contemporary evidence presented here.