Calculating the probability of absence using the Credible Interval Value

A common question that arises when considering the results from a well-designed sampling programme for a rare or invasive species is: 'Sampling has failed to detect a species that could have been present, so can we calculate the probability that it truly was absent during the sampling period?&#...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inNew Zealand journal of ecology Vol. 35; no. 2; pp. 189 - 190
Main Authors McBride, Graham B., Johnstone, Peter
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Christchurch New Zealand Ecological Society 01.01.2011
Subjects
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Bayesian theories
Biological invasions
Biosecurity
Ecosystem studies
Human ecology
Introduced organisms
Mathematical functions
Mathematical intervals
Mathematical models
Nonnative species
Probability
Probability measures
Sampling
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Summary:A common question that arises when considering the results from a well-designed sampling programme for a rare or invasive species is: 'Sampling has failed to detect a species that could have been present, so can we calculate the probability that it truly was absent during the sampling period?' Noting that this invokes a Bayesian view of 'probability', which therefore must be accepted if the question is to be answered in the affirmative, we present a method of addressing it.
Bibliography:Archived by the National Library of New Zealand
Includes illustration, references
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ISSN:0110-6465
1177-7788
1177-7788