ESTIMATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS INFECTION IN THE 1950s IN TOKYO

• Published in: Kekkaku Vol. 83; no. 7; pp. 503 - 506
• Main Authors: KOIKE, Rika, INOGUCHI, Chiyo, WATASE, Hirotoshi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Japanese
• Published: Japan JAPANESE SOCIETY FOR TUBERCULOSIS 01.07.2008
• Subjects: Annual risk of infection; Bayes formula; Child, Preschool; Children; Female; History, 20th Century; Humans; Infant; Male; Prevalence; Tokyo - epidemiology; Tuberculosis; Tuberculosis - epidemiology; Tuberculosis - history; Tokyo
• ISSN: 0022-9776; 1884-2410
• DOI: 10.11400/kekkaku1923.83.503

[Purpose] We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the 1950s in the urban area of Tokyo using results of the tuberculin skin test (TST) in infants and children. [Subject and methods] We analyzed prevalence of tuberculosis using the results of the TST in 728 children (5 m. o. -24m. o. ) without BCG vaccination in 1954 in Koto Ward, Tokyo. [Results] Assuming that the sensitivity and specifi city of the TST were 95% and 98%, respectively, the prevalence of TB was estimated to be 2% (95% C. I., 0.4-4.3%) among 448infants under 12 m. o. (mean age 0.69 y. o, ), and 16% (95%C. I., 11.9-21.5%) among 280 children aged 12 m. o. -24 m. o. (mean age 1.44 y. o. ). [Conclusion] Being different from the current situation of tuberculosis, the risk of infection among infants was high in 1950s in Japan, therefore, it was considered that the prevalence of tuberculosis infection rose rapidly among infants in their early period after birth. Also, the risk of infection in urban areas was higher comparing with the average national rate at that time_