An index for predicting the onset of monsoon over Kerala

Forecasting the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is one of the important events in the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department. There are several criteria followed across the forecasting community to achieve this. In this article, we propose an index (Monsoon Onset Forecas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inCurrent science (Bangalore) Vol. 105; no. 7; pp. 954 - 961
Main Authors Puranik, S. S., Ray, K. C. Sinha, Sen, P. N., Kumar, P. Pradeep
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Current Science Association 10.10.2013
Subjects
Analytical forecasting
Climate models
Communities
Criteria
Forecasting
India
Kinetic energy
Meteorology
Monsoons
Proxy client servers
Rain
Rainy seasons
Southwest
Standard deviation
Summer
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Forecasting the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is one of the important events in the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department. There are several criteria followed across the forecasting community to achieve this. In this article, we propose an index (Monsoon Onset Forecast Index; MOFI), developed with averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and averaged kinetic energy as proxies. Twenty-year composite analysis shows significant increase in the kinetic energy and decrease in the OLR five days before the onset, and the MOFI becomes positive. Application of this index has been tested for 13 subsequent years and it is found that the index performs well.
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ISSN:0011-3891