The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility

A study is made of the way in which aggregate economic activity affects fertility rates. Two conclusions are made. One is that economic models of fertility behavior that emphasize the distinction between income and price effects-what this study calls male income and female wage effects-are successfu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe American economic review Vol. 69; no. 3; pp. 318 - 328
Main Authors Butz, William P., Ward, Michael P.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Menasha, Wis The American Economic Association 01.06.1979
American Economic Association
Subjects
Age groups
Births
Children
Decrease
Economic activity
Economic fluctuations
Effects
Employment
Female fertility
Fertility
Fertility rates
Rates
Wages
Wives
Women
Workforce
Working
Working women
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Summary:A study is made of the way in which aggregate economic activity affects fertility rates. Two conclusions are made. One is that economic models of fertility behavior that emphasize the distinction between income and price effects-what this study calls male income and female wage effects-are successful in explaining not only important features of cross-sectional variations but also aggregate movements of US fertility over time. Secondly, the model used here successfully predicts both procyclical and countercyclical variations in fertility in a unified framework, across age groups, and over a long time span. The current level of employment of young women and variation in their wages are more than high enough to induce continuing countercyclical fertility movements. The fertility increases or levelings of 1970 and 1974 reflect this phenomenon and no reason is seen for this to change as long as a large proportion of young women are employed. It is also expected that the female employment ratio will continue its secular increase and female wages will rise as long as the economy expands.
ISSN:0002-8282
1944-7981