Reliable Board-Level Degradation Prediction with Monotonic Segmented Regression under Noisy Measurement

• Published in: Proceedings - IEEE VLSI Test Symposium pp. 1 - 7
• Main Authors: Yin, Yuxuan, Chen, Rebecca, Thukral, Varun, He, Chen, Li, Peng
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 28.04.2025
• Subjects: Board-Level Reliability; Degradation; Electrical resistance measurement; Forecasting; N-BEATS; Noise; Noise measurement; Physical Health Monitoring; Physics of Degradation; Prognostics; Reliability; Resistance; Segmented Regression; Time measurement; Time series analysis; Vibrations
• ISSN: 2375-1053
• DOI: 10.1109/VTS65138.2025.11022944

The increasing complexity of electronic systems in autonomous electric vehicles necessitates robust methods for forecasting the degradation of critical components such as printed circuit boards (PCBs). Various time series forecasting methods have been investigated to predict in-situ resistance degradation under vibration loads. However, these methods failed to capture the degradation trend under strong measurement noise. This paper introduces Monotonic Segmented Linear Regression (MSLR), a novel approach designed to capture monotonic degradation trends in time series data under significant measurement noise. By incorporating monotonic constraints, MSLR effectively models the non-decreasing behavior characteristic of degradation processes. To further enhance reliability of the prediction, we integrate Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) with MSLR, enabling the estimation of statistically valid upper bounds for resistance degradation with high confidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MSLR outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting baselines on real-world PCB degradation datasets.