Assessing nation-state instability and failure
DARPA initiated a six-month Pre-Conflict Anticipation and Shaping (PCAS) initiative to demonstrate the utility of quantitative and computational social science models (Q/CSS) applied to assessing the instability and failure of nation-states. In this program ten different teams of Q/CSS researchers a...
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Published in | 2006 IEEE Aerospace Conference p. 18 pp. |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , |
Format | Conference Proceeding |
Language | English |
Published |
IEEE
2006
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | DARPA initiated a six-month Pre-Conflict Anticipation and Shaping (PCAS) initiative to demonstrate the utility of quantitative and computational social science models (Q/CSS) applied to assessing the instability and failure of nation-states. In this program ten different teams of Q/CSS researchers and practitioners developed nation state instability models and then applied them to two different countries to assess their current stability levels as well as forecast their stability levels 6-12 months hence. The models developed ranged from systems dynamics, structural equations, cellular automata, Bayesian networks and hidden Markov models, scale-invariant geo-political distributions, and multi agent-based systems. In the PCAS program we also explored a mechanism for sensitivity analysis of Q/CSS model results to selected parameters, and we also implemented a mechanism to automatically categorize, parse, extract and auto-populate a bank of Q/CSS models from large-scale open source text streams. Preliminary yet promising results were achieved, and the utility of the results can provide added value for decision-making problems around planning, intelligence analysis, information operations and training. This paper describes the motivation and rationale for the program, the Q/CSS models and mechanisms, and presents results from some of the models. In addition, future research and key challenges in using these Q/CSS models within an operational decision making environment will be discussed |
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ISBN: | 9780780395459 078039545X |
ISSN: | 1095-323X 2996-2358 |
DOI: | 10.1109/AERO.2006.1656054 |