Extending the SVM integration with case based restarting GA to predict solar flare

• Published in: 2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) pp. 1994 - 1999
• Main Authors: Kubota, Yoshihiko, Tsuruta, Setsuo, Muranushi, Takayuki, Hada-Muranushi, Yuko, Knauf, Rainer, Sakurai, Yoshitaka, Damiani, Ernesto
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 01.10.2017
• Subjects: Case Base; Electronic mail; Feature extraction; Genetic algorithms; Restart; Sociology; solar flare forcast; Statistics; Support Vector Machine; Support vector machines; Weather forecasting
• DOI: 10.1109/SMC.2017.8122911

Human life can be seriously affected by unusual high solar flare. It causes serious problems such as destroying satellites, damaging electric power plants, etc. Predicting solar flare peaks is indispensable. Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to predict the solar flare intensity based on data of the past. However, such prediction is an extremely difficult imbalanced classification problem causing a very large scale combinatorial problem. To overcome this, a local optimizer such as SVM was cooperatively or synergistically integrated with a case base and GA. This extension was called Case Based Genetic Algorithm with Local Optimizer (CBGALO). This synergetic technology outperformed around 10% over SVM only. However, GA is known for a tendency to fall into stagnation or local optima without improving. This paper presents a further extended strategy which introduces GA restarting with various operations such as mutation rate etc. especially with various but high quality cases used as the initial population at each restart. This highly synergetic technology is called CBRSGALO (Case Based integration of ReStart GA with Local Optimizer). Experimental evaluation showed that CBRSGALO outperformed around 20% over just a local optimizer such as SVM.