System-Dynamic Model for Forecasting Municipal Labour Market Development

• Published in: 2022 4th International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA) pp. 296 - 300
• Main Authors: Gorbunov, Daniil, Fedoseev, Sergey, Eltsova, Maria
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 09.11.2022
• Subjects: Data models; differential equation; Economics; Energy efficiency; Finite element analysis; labor market; Mathematical models; Numerical models; Predictive models; system-dynamic model
• DOI: 10.1109/SUMMA57301.2022.9974101

The paper considers application of the previously proposed system-dynamic model of the economic system consisting of a finite number of elements. According to the model conception., subjects of the labour market are divided into three categories depending on the value of demand for their labor: subjects of high., low and medium qualification. The model enables to calculate stable values of the number of subjects with all three qualification categories in each labour market enterprise and among unemployed subjects depending on the input data. A methodology has been developed to assign initial numerical values to each of the modelled parameters which presents three alternative ways of assigning qualifications to each labour market entity. The model has been tested with real data. Input parameters of the model are the labour market indicators of Sylva settlement of the Perm Region in 2021. The modeled system is represented by the backbone enterprise., the sector of private enterprises., the sector of budgetary enterprises., the sector of shadow employment and unrecorded unemployment as well as the sector of registered unemployed. We have obtained three alternative forecasts for sustainable values of the shares of subjects with all three qualification categories in the ackbone enterprise and in each of the listed sectors of the Sylva's labour market.