Democratization after Civil War: A Brush-Clearing Exercise

Why do some states emerging from civil war take significant strides toward democracy while others do not? The existing literature comes to contradictory and puzzling findings, many of which, we argue, are driven by methodological problems. We examine the determinants of democratization in the short,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational studies quarterly Vol. 56; no. 4; pp. 801 - 808
Main Authors Fortna, Virginia Page, Huang, Reyko
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2012
Wiley Periodicals, Inc
Subjects
Autocracy
Civil War
Civil wars
Cold wars
Democracy
Democratization
Determinants
Economic Development
Liberalization
Methodological Problems
Oil
Peace keeping
Peace negotiations
Peacekeeping
Petroleum
Polities
War
War conflict
War economics
Wealth
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Summary:Why do some states emerging from civil war take significant strides toward democracy while others do not? The existing literature comes to contradictory and puzzling findings, many of which, we argue, are driven by methodological problems. We examine the determinants of democratization in the short, medium, and long term after civil wars ending between 1945 and 1999. Other than a short-term effect of negotiated settlements, we find little support for the prominent claim that the outcome of the war shapes the prospects for postwar democratization. Neither does peacekeeping foster democratization. Meanwhile, consistent with the more general democratization literature, we find that economic development aids democratization while oil wealth hinders it. In short, we find the determinants of democratization to be much the same for post-civil war societies as for other societies.
Bibliography:We thank Nancy Bermeo, Nisha Fazal, Desha Girod, Terrence Lyons, Ingrid Samset, anonymous reviewers, and co-panelists and participants at the Columbia University Comparative Politics Seminar, 2008 International Studies Association annual convention, and 2009 American Political Science Association annual meeting for helpful comments on earlier drafts of the paper. We also thank Rachel McMillan and Sean O'Keefe for research assistance.
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ISSN:0020-8833
1468-2478
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00730.x