Research progress of the ultra-short term power forecast for PV power generation: A review

• Published in: 2021 33rd Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC) pp. 1419 - 1424
• Main Authors: Zhu, Xianping, Li, Shaowu, Li, Yan, Fan, Jingxun
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 22.05.2021
• Subjects: Classification of method; Dispatching; Photovoltaic power generation; Photovoltaic systems; Power grids; Power system stability; Prediction methods; Safety; Solar power forecasting; Stability criteria; Ultra-short term
• ISSN: 1948-9447
• DOI: 10.1109/CCDC52312.2021.9601626

With the continuous improvement of the permeability of photovoltaic(PV) power generation in the power grid, it is difficult to ensure the accuracy of the prediction in the traditional short-term power prediction for PV power generation, which will have an important impact on the safety, stability of the power system and the dispatching. However, few previous studies have classify and summarize the ultra-short-term power prediction of PV power generation. To address these questions, this study focuses on the ultra-short-term power prediction method of PV power generation and the influence of prediction errors on the power grid. The factors affecting the accuracy of PV power prediction are classified, and the research status of PV power prediction is summarized. On this basis, the requirements of the evaluation index of PV power prediction results are analyzed, and the error evaluation index should reflect the prediction quality in the whole time period. Finally, the prediction methods are summarized and the future research direction is prospected.