A Novel Prediction Model of Expressway Electromechanical Equipment Life

• Published in: International Conference on Advanced Mechatronic Systems pp. 246 - 250
• Main Authors: Xuejian He, Guanqiang Dong, Zongxiao Yang
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 01.08.2018
• Subjects: Detectors; Expressway Electromechanical Equipment; Fault probabilities; Maintenance engineering; Markov Chain; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Prediction Model; Predictive models; Road transportation
• ISSN: 2325-0690
• DOI: 10.1109/ICAMechS.2018.8507052

Expressway electromechanical equipment operation status is related to many factors, it exists a lot of uncertainty and randomness. First, the relation among the transition probabilities, the limit probabilities and the equipment state of the time rolling window is calculated by using the Markov chain theory to master the variation of equipment failure. Then, according to the bathtub curve theory and combining with the method of Markov chain, the transfer probabilities and the probabilities limit are analysed to determine the effective life of the equipment. Based on the Markov chain, a new life prediction model is established to study the fault probability trend and the historical fault data are analysed to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the prediction model.