A Novel Prediction Model of Expressway Electromechanical Equipment Life

Expressway electromechanical equipment operation status is related to many factors, it exists a lot of uncertainty and randomness. First, the relation among the transition probabilities, the limit probabilities and the equipment state of the time rolling window is calculated by using the Markov chai...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational Conference on Advanced Mechatronic Systems pp. 246 - 250
Main Authors Xuejian He, Guanqiang Dong, Zongxiao Yang
Format Conference Proceeding
LanguageEnglish
Published IEEE 01.08.2018
Subjects
Detectors
Expressway Electromechanical Equipment
Fault probabilities
Maintenance engineering
Markov Chain
Markov processes
Mathematical model
Prediction Model
Predictive models
Road transportation
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ISSN2325-0690
DOI10.1109/ICAMechS.2018.8507052

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Summary:Expressway electromechanical equipment operation status is related to many factors, it exists a lot of uncertainty and randomness. First, the relation among the transition probabilities, the limit probabilities and the equipment state of the time rolling window is calculated by using the Markov chain theory to master the variation of equipment failure. Then, according to the bathtub curve theory and combining with the method of Markov chain, the transfer probabilities and the probabilities limit are analysed to determine the effective life of the equipment. Based on the Markov chain, a new life prediction model is established to study the fault probability trend and the historical fault data are analysed to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the prediction model.
ISSN:2325-0690
DOI:10.1109/ICAMechS.2018.8507052