The operating risk evaluation of power system with a large scale of wind farms considering uncertainty of wind power prediction and extreme weather

• Published in: 2nd IET Renewable Power Generation Conference (RPG 2013) p. 3.C52
• Main Authors: Cao, Yinli, Li, Haibo, Lu, Zongxiang, Wang, Wei
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Stevenage, UK IET 2013; The Institution of Engineering & Technology
• Subjects: Monte Carlo methods; Power system planning and layout; Wind power plants; Monte Carlo methods; wind power prediction; extreme weather; power system; wind power forecast; load forecasting; operating risk evaluation; system generation margin model; wind power plants; wind farms
• ISBN: 9781849197588; 184919758X
• DOI: 10.1049/cp.2013.1858

This paper focuses on the basic framework of operating risk evaluation method considering two key uncertain factors: the wind power prediction and extreme weather. The output model of large scale wind farms including the uncertainty of wind power forecast is proposed in this paper. Then the system generation margin model considering the ramp rate of conventional generators is built up to study the operating risk of power system. At last, based on the forecasted and measured data of wind farms in Gansu province, a simulation on RBTS indicates that the fluctuation of wind power is the essential source of the risk for power system with large scale of wind farms. The outage loss of power system in extreme weather is much higher than the risk in normal weather but with a much lower probability, which is a "HILP" event.