Study of the energetic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit with a time-varying NARMAX method

The Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs(NARMAX) approach is briefly introduced. Since its advantage on nonlinear system modeling, this paper focuses on its application for describing the dynamic energetic electron flux(>2MeV)variations at the geostationary orbit. A basic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in2015 International Conference on Computer, Communications, and Control Technology (I4CT) pp. 399 - 403
Main Authors Liu Shuai, Li Zhi, Lin Ruilin
Format Conference Proceeding
LanguageEnglish
Published IEEE 01.04.2015
Subjects
Autoregressive processes
Belts
Data models
High Energetic Electron Flux
Indexes
Kalman Filter
Kalman filters
NARMAX
Nonlinear Modeling
Predictive models
Space vehicles
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Summary:The Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs(NARMAX) approach is briefly introduced. Since its advantage on nonlinear system modeling, this paper focuses on its application for describing the dynamic energetic electron flux(>2MeV)variations at the geostationary orbit. A basic one-step-ahead nonlinear model and a Kalman Filter modified one are built to map the relationship between the electron fluxes and the solar wind and the geomagnetic index. The prediction efficiency reaches up to 79.7%. The validation procedure further confirms that this method is effective and could be helpful in studying the radiation belt.
DOI:10.1109/I4CT.2015.7219606