A Multi-stage Operation Loop Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory with Dynamic Reference Point

• Published in: 2022 8th International Conference on Control Science and Systems Engineering (ICCSSE) pp. 20 - 28
• Main Authors: Wang, Luyao, Chen, Libin, Li, Minghao, Yang, Zhiwei, Yang, Kewei, Li, Mengjun
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 14.07.2022
• Subjects: kill-web; multi-stage decisionmaking; operation loop; prospect theory; reference point
• DOI: 10.1109/ICCSSE55346.2022.10079790

Aiming at the situation that the dynamic changes of reference points at different stages may lead to changes in the decision-making results of the operation loop, we propose a multistage operation loop decision-making method based on dynamic reference points. Firstly, according to the concept of the operation loop, the network model of the kill-web is carried out through node, edge and meta-path modeling. On this basis, the multi-stage operation loop decision problem is described. Secondly, a decisionmaking method based on prospect theory is proposed. This method sets up the determination method of the reference point and establishes the update mechanism of the reference point, and comprehensively uses the prospect theory to calculate the comprehensive prospect value of the operation loop, which is used as the decision-making factor of the operation loop. Finally, taking a kill-web to perform a three-stage combat mission as an example, the optimal operation loop of each stage is selected to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.